Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Chaos Theory?

Chaos. All is chaos. Whew! The day has ended in a messy and completely unpredictable. I started my day, as usual, with taking a bath, opening my pc and going to the office and then kaboom! It happened. Late. I came in late...5 minutes.What happened next is history.My boss is angry.Customers are dissatisfied.My subordinates are frowning.Things had gotten out of hand. My head is aching and my table is in complete mess. I went home, as usual, taking a jeepney ride to Landmark. But the chaos didn't stop there. A kid, about 5 years old, got hit by the jeepney I was in.He stood up, bloody, and run home. I cant breath. All I saw was complete darkness. Finally I came to my crib in Makati Exec Tower safely. But the picture of the bloody kid is still there. The image of my irate customers. Picturesque of my boss's grimace is still in my head. Then I remember Edward Lorenz, a meteorologist,and his first discovery of the Chaos Theory. This is how he stated it:

"The flapping of a single butterfly's wing today produces a tiny change in the state of the atmosphere. Over a period of time, what the atmosphere actually does diverges from what it would have done. So, in a month's time, a tornado that would have devastated the Indonesian coast doesn't happen. Or maybe one that wasn't going to happen, does. "

The Lorenz Attractor

It wasn't really a theory until he first experiment it using his computer and his weather forecasts. He entered only three digits of the code instead of 6, so the result is a devastation.By all conventional ideas of the time, it should have worked. He should have gotten a sequence very close to the original sequence. A scientist considers himself lucky if he can get measurements with accuracy to three decimal places. Surely the fourth and fifth, impossible to measure using reasonable methods, can't have a huge effect on the outcome of the experiment. Lorenz proved this idea wrong. This effect came to be known as the butterfly effect. The amount of difference in the starting points of the two curves is so small that it is comparable to a butterfly flapping its wings.

"At the top, water drips steadily into containers hanging on the wheel's rim. Each container drips steadily from a small hole. If the stream of water is slow, the top containers never fill fast enough to overcome friction, but if the stream is faster, the weight starts to turn the wheel. The rotation might become continuous. Or if the stream is so fast that the heavy containers swing all the way around the bottom and up the other side, the wheel might then slow, stop, and reverse its rotation, turning first one way and then the other. (James Gleick, Chaos - Making A New Science, pg. 29) "

I know that though things have gotten out of hand, I still believe that there is a solution to any of our problems. May our problems be complex or simple, the thing is that there is always a solution...

"There is an easy solution to every human problem,neat, plausible and wrong. So if the solution to our problems is not neat, plausible and wrong. Then it had to be, messy, unlikely and right."
God bless that 5-year old kid...and of course, my boss. :)

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

that was some experience. i hope you are feeling a lot better now. TC man!

kimoy said...

dude thanks for dropping by.taga san ka ba?